So I saw a piece over at CFR and they were selling the following eleven conflict prevention priorities for 2016.
Top U.S. conflict prevention priorities in 2016 include
- the intensification of the civil war in Syria;
- a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally;
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on critical U.S. infrastructure;
- a severe crisis with or in North Korea;
- political instability in EU countries stemming from the influx of refugees and migrants;
- continued political fracturing of Libya;
- heightened tensions between Israelis and Palestinians;
- intensified political violence in Turkey;
- increased political instability in Egypt;
- increased violence and instability in Afghanistan; and
- continued fracturing of Iraq due to territorial gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State and ongoing Sunni-Shia sectarian violence.
I know I don’t get paid to think like these folks do but I have to say in my opinion they’re overpaid.
- Syria. I don’t think the USA is anywhere near preventing or being concerned about intensification of the conflict in Syria. The truth is secondary to Russia’s actions there is finally some hope that the situation will be stabilized and steered forward in a positive manner.
- MCI in US or ally. I’ll give them this one only because its an ongoing issue with recent events highlighting our general inability to prevent it.
- Cyber stuff. Again I can give them this one under the same flag as above. The interesting point here is the variables such as the state and non state actors that could attempt to make it happen. The USA is not the leader in realizing privacy and security concerns in the IT arena that’s for sure.
- North Korea. Well I can only see this as an issue secondary to the primary leash holder,Beijing, being less enthused to tug. That swings both ways though so I have to ding them on this one.
- EU & migrants. Ding ding ding they shoot and score!!!!!
- Libya. The failed state and failed Obama,Clinton,Rice,Jarrett venture is worrisome but too localized in reality to be a threat to the USA. Libya will stand as a lesson not to do what we did.
- Israel and Palestinians. This is a tired and worn page from the playbook. I don’t see this one as credible.
- Turkey. Quite frankly anything that flusters and shows Erdogan to be a punk ass bitch is a good thing. I don’t think change or instability in Turkey equals a negative to US/West interests. Turkey has an important role to play in international affairs and has been sorely lacking of late on bringing it to the table.
- Egypt. I don’t see it. 2016 Egypt isn’t an issue.
- Afghanistan. I’ll give them a yes on this one. Afghanistan is a solid testimony to failed FP and damning of our folks who bled there.
- Iraq. I’m 50/50 with them on this one. I think Iraq is either going to get and answer its final wake up call or it is going to slide down the failed state slope.
So who do you side with? Clearly I think China and the South China Sea issue is a top fiver. I think Americas own ongoing immigration issues is too. Let me know.