The Pending Syrian Reset…

…or as per other appropriate titles

How Western Democracies Continue to Fail

Obama Truly is Terrible @ FP.

syriagretion

What is starting to become apparent regards Syria is that the initial reactions to the uprising there were out of proportion to the commitment needed to foster them.

Overzealous expectations of a Syria without Assad allowed the West to take a position that failed to match a simple reality,Assad wasn’t willing to go. Like shocked little children suddenly faced with the unexpected the West aligned with elements that upon closer inspection were not populists but in fact islamists and promised nothing but future instability. The US staple of Middle East affairs,stability at all cost, was torn asunder and Syria plunged into a civil war.

Sadly the regional instability wrought in no small part by the United States operations in Iraq and Afghanistan helped another front to occur in both Iraq and Syria. The rise of ISIL. Syria now had two wars raging within its borders,stood ostracized by most nations and saw its sovereignty slip away as others decided ISIL must be engaged.

obamaofUS President Barack Obama issued various “red lines” in the early part of the conflict and in so doing revealed the second major flaw of the Western Democracies. The primary driver of the red lines was the alleged use of chemical weapons by Syrian government forces. Assad surrendered his CW and the credit of that act goes to Russia. The decision to surrender came about and the West was flat footed and dumbfounded with what to do next. The West eventually got around to the logistics of moving the CW out of a war zone they helped create and Assad stayed on further. Essentially the West and the US specifically were never prepared to back their talk.

iranflag.jpegIran was the first foreign nation to really put its money and blood where its mouth was. Inserting ground troops and supplies as well as bringing in Hezbollah from Lebanon the Iranians helped to save the Assad regime and even reverse gains by the various opponents. By this time any semblance of the FSA,Free Syrian Army,being a prospective ascendent to governance had been dashed. The various islamist groups,many with direct affiliations to Al Qaeda or ISIL, had hobbled any true populist movement and any chance that a democracy was coming to Damascus. This reality has been bolstered by America’s failure,after much expense,to successfully train and insert “good Syrian” combatants onto the front lines. Most recently the small group we did arm turned the weapons over to AQ.

Unfortunately for Syrians the government did indeed suffer a number of losses on the ground. The continued international outcry over Assad’s presence and the actions of his forces grew ever louder. The internal and external displacement of 7 million Syrians set the stage for one of the next issues but first there would be the enlarged ISIL issue.

The West woke up one day and noticed that their anti-ISIL operations were actually helping Assad and even paying a good turn to the Iranians. Talk about a coyote ugly moment. The die was cast though it would need just one more turn and it has come.

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Europe is being “invaded” by refugees from Syria and Iraq as well as a number of other countries. Regional countries such as Turkey had been under strain housing many Syrians and found itself the launching point for desperate people who decided better lives awaited in the EU.

Enter Putin. No half ass reader of tea leaves he. Russia has set up shop in Tartus and Latakia and has offered humanitarian and military support to the Assad government. Along with Iran they have drawn a solid red line in the sand that at least for now Assad stays and Syria is to be stabilized. The West is starting to accept this with Obama,Cameron (UK) and very soon Hollande (France) firing PR salvos that diplomacy must reign supreme in Syria. For the sake of the suffering masses,regional security,the destruction of ISIL and so on.

I don’t know if this next stage will work out or how long it will roll. I do know Iran and Russia are not going to quit though and that their positions and actions have proven consistently correct. I also know they have set the next stage regionally by creating a regional security and counter terrorism plan with Iraq. I believe this is indicative of a failure on behalf of the West.

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2 Comments

  1. Huck says:

    Iran will stay the course in Syria. I suspect Russia will, too. War is a lot easier to stick with when you don’t have voters to deal with.

  2. Alfie says:

    There’s a lot of meat in your succinct comment Huck. Yes the autocrats enjoy a freedom democracies don’t. FWIW I do think the Iranians and Russians are taking the right path. The ends will be interesting for sure.

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