If I were to say only one thing about the recent agreement upon a framework of a policy in the P5+1 drama it would be Spheres Alive !
The United States and the United Kingdom are parties to the talks and have a vested interest in the outcomes both for international and domestic reasons. The overwhelming impression of the talks in the USA is that they are solely between the USA and Iran. This is sad and shows that the ignorance of the American voter and political class is such that we obviously need brain enema or something.
Although America will fail to benefit as much as others from the sanction lift that would come with a deal there is an undeniable positive impact to the global market place coming if it happens.This is an area that the UK,especially London’s financial markets could benefit.
The Anglosphere looks for stability with the dawning of P5+1 deal.
France,Germany and Russia are the representatives of this sphere in the talks. France has had occasion to assert its views at least once being the darlings of Americas ignorant Israelphile Right. France is asserting itself for domestic policy reasons as well as international desire. France honestly sees itself as a player on the international scene. In some places France has been willing to actually go all in to back up its world view. There is something to be said for that.
Germany is the outlier which is aptly symbolized in it’s being the “plus one” at the party. Still Berlin will be a beneficiary on the economic front which is how Germany gets its spheric juice anyhow.Germany sits at the table by the way pretty much due to its economic ties to Tehran. Germany was one of the earlier EU3 negotiators that evolved depending on ones views to EU3+3 to P5+1.
Russia will benefit the most from a resolution to the sanctions and the resulting controls put on Tehran in my opinion. Russia is one of the largest suppliers of nuclear material in the world.Along with Germany Russia has the most fingerprints on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Iran doesn’t need to develop its own civilian radio actives since they can buy from Moscow, which is how Russia and Iran live a win/win in the negotiated resolution. Iran isn’t without concerns regards Moscow however as evidenced by such things as Iran deploying some of it best naval assets in the Caspian Sea. The Russians and Iranians exhibit some of the same personality traits when it comes to geopolitics.
China is at the table and is likely a voice for resolution and calm. China isn’t playing the short game which should actually comfort some of the western ideologues who are fretting Armageddon. China isn’t looking for Iran to behave short term only to have the Middle East go to hell thus crushing China’s gas and oil access,let alone the future economic boom of the New Silk Road I&II.
It goes without saying that if you accept the KSA/Iran rift to be something more than a pure Sunni/Shia based issue the islamosphere is a power politics reality. I think the US especially has an hypocritical view of the Middle East and a myopic view of the regions politics. Our influence there has been degraded to a point of no return. We have reached a point where the USA is not the superpower but rather the globally involved multi-spheric power.There is a difference and it isn’t the worse thing to happen to either the USA or the world.
In the case of the Islamosphere I think there is something to be said about a rebalancing of who leads the sphere. Saudi Arabia has been the default head of the sphere and I dare say an ineffective one. Saudi Arabia took over from Egypt who lost the job as Nasser failed in his endeavor of Arab unity. Irony rears its head in the headlines as Egypt and Saudi Arabia look to enter Yemen again,Yemen being where the two changed crowns of sphere control in the 1960’s.