What is the actual motive ?
What is the allegiance ?
Where is this heading ?
Who are the winners and losers ?
What is the actual motive?
I think my previous shared post of a STRATFOR piece covers this question nicely. (here) The only shortcoming of this however is the question of the nature of the players. I’ll be questioning the allegiance factor in more detail next but what if the events in Paris were either a Lone Wolf action or a false flag operation? The former is possible since France is no stranger to Muslim dysfunction.[see bottom for previous posts] The professionalism of the assault however makes this seem unlikely in my opinion. Surely some type of organized entity helped foster this all. This of course feeds the frenzy of those that embrace the latter. A false flag op to foment public outcry allowing increases and perhaps excesses in government responses. This is not something I personally subscribe to but I have to tip my hat to the “walks like a duck” nature of it.
That said people are indeed dead and events have been set into motion and this leads to more questions.
What is the allegiance ?
Blanket accusations of Muslim extremism was the early and easy sell; however, for folks who followed closely four scenarios started to flesh out in short order.
#1 Al Qaeda: Core Al Qaeda implicated by the reports of previous death threats against Charlie Habod staff and facility. Specific mention of the target being found in the AQ magazine Inspire.
#2 AQAP: This came into play with some pull from alleged US intelligence reports. The two brothers were implicated in having trained with AQ in Yemen and to have followed to some degree Anwar al-Aulaqi the US/Yemeni citizen who was a well known jihadist involved in promoting attacks on the West.
#3 ISIL: This comes into play from a video released after the fact of Amedy Coulibaly,the attacker at the kosher supermarket attack in Paris, in which he positions himself and the brothers as acting on behalf of the Caliphate. This implies the Islamic State (ISIL/ISIS) as they are the self modern Caliphate.
#4 Algeria/AQIM: This one plays out secondary to the Kouchi brothers being Franco-Algerian. This one gets slammed a little secondary to the widely reported and accepted ties to Yemen ergo #2. Algeria also comes into play because of Authentic Tauheed. Where as one part of AQIM is tied to AQ AT is aligned with ISIL.
See the chart below for a dizzying trip into the alliances etc.
I had previously agreed that the AQ connections seemed the most plausible. Whether Core AQ or the Yemen links it was fairly convincing. I’m now left questioning if the ISIL line is more credible. ISIL is the winner in my eyes for capturing the hearts and minds of the next wave of radicals. Youthful and disenchanted masses easily radicalized and seduced to the “charms” of the Caliphate incarnate. This gels well with the uptick of Europeans who have attempted to join ISIL on the front lines. Bottom line I guess I am now leaning ISIL.
***1/15/15 UPDATE*** Reflection allows for clarity. AQAP has released a statement claiming responsibility. ISIL is silent but has enjoyed its own out of the box victory with its ties to the CENTCOM hack. So where does this leave me. What is one to think giving that there seems to be conflicting narratives emanating from “official” circles? Having had more time to think on this I think what we have here is a lone wolf/wolf pack affair. I think what we’re all missing and doubt official sources have missed is that what has come to light is that the organizations such as ISIL,AQ,AQIM,AQAP etc. recognize that there are disaffected muslims in the West who with a nudge and prod and some assistance can be relied upon to commit acts of terror.An act occurs and the players hem and haw before weighing in on it. The bigs are relying on inspiration to bolster their rhetoric and ideology. This isn’t a good thing. Beyond sleepers what we may very well be looking at is far more dangerous.
Where is this heading?
Its still early but clearly the French government as well as the governments of the UK,Germany and who knows who else will be jumping into some degree of action. Europe’s governments are all ready beset with issues of immigration,economy,EU unity and such. All the countries are being squeezed by their respective right wings and this latest is like gasoline on a fire.
Under the rules of cause and effect the reactions to the terror actions will impact further reactions. As shown in the STRATFOR piece this is something folks think was the aim of the attackers. Government reaction will hopefully instill greater disenchantment on behalf of Muslims leading to more stressors and potential recruitment bumps. Failure of the West to act adequately will cause domestic entities,especially the right wingers, to take actions that get the same pay off for the extremists.
Who are the winners and losers?
I think for the early stages the extremists have a win. The right wing types have a win. Paris might squeeze out a win over time but it will depend on how they play the game. The USA is a winner in that they are now globally vindicated in their surveillance programs.The press and self expression gets a win but it’ll be short lived.
Obviously the families and friends of the victims are the biggest losers. The PC/multiculturalists lose in the short term and quite possibly longer and badly. Libertarians etc. have a loss on their hands as Snowden is now completely irrelevant for the foreseeable future. Everyday Muslims are losers as long as and perhaps regardless of their continued words only approach to defending their faith from the nut jobs.