Yes indeed one can call me the eternal pessimist but I prefer being called a pain in the neck realist. Let’s lookie look…
Well that sucks for a number of reasons. First and foremost I think he has been a pretty lame POTUS and dread to fathom what a true lame duck Obama would be like. Let’s face some reality. The world isn’t on a path of great reversal in ’12 and that includes the functional relationship between Congress and the WH. A reelected Obama brings nothing to America PERIOD!
President X (R) Elected
Doesn’t really matter since that happens in 2012 but doesn’t take effect until 2013.
The Arab Spring
Continued repercussions from the historic events will unfold and the reality is that for the United States none of them are gonna be good and some of them are quite disturbing. The Libya situation will as I’ve said all along begin to bear fruit for the Euro’s. The rest of North Africa will be a blank with the exception of Egypt hitting a number of news cycles and for all the wrong reasons. If we expand out a bit we have Syria which is many folks pick for the next big thing. I can’t say I disagree but I think two other regional happenings will come into play to impact it.
Number 1 is that Turkey closed out 2011 putting up a major diplomatic road block to France and the latters ties and desires in the region. I think this will be an important story line that plays out in 2012 with big implications for Syria,Saudi Arabia,Iran,Israel and the USA. Obviously when you build a list like that you accept you could easily say “the rest of the World”. Turkey as I’ve stressed before is the player in the region and unfortunately on many fronts it seems only Turkey knows it.
Number 2 is of course the sabre and scimitar rattling going on right now in the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranians have ratcheted up their annual straits war mongering and the US for one isn’t having it and neither are the Saudis. I think this is a story that has legs leading up to the summer of 2012 at least and could be a bumpy ride indeed.
You put those two together and I think one has a Rubiks Cube kind of thing that has nations jockeying and vying for positions and presence. Hands down the region is the story for the New Year.
If you think fireworks,a ball dropping and a new calender fixes this you’re not hung over, you’re fucking stupid !
US Foreign Policy
Ummmm I don’t know if I really understand where our policy is right now. It seems to me that the Obama critics who speak of leading from behind are not far off at all. I think the mix of status quo policy positions and from behind posturing has weakened the US far and away more than the W cowboy years. That may come off as partisan bullshit but I think such an analysis is unfair and not based in reality.
Image repair that could be stretched to Obama’s credit was clearly dismissed by a number of actions. Seriously folks does anyone think Pakistan and Afghanistan let alone Iran is digging us? Latin America has suffered further indignation from the gringoes and as such have unleashed the powers to be there on the paths they are on. The Russians…..The Russians?….The Russians! Add the Chinese you see how Obama has failed as well as why Huntsman big credential was so easily tossed on the manure heap.
In summary our 2012 FP is:
No plan for dealing with the Russians
Tonkin Redux with Iran
Brazil and Turkey flexing regional and international ummph
China…no plan and no hand hence a number of our FP issues are moot
Af/Pak + Iraq = waste: further solidified
Again call me a cynic,a pessimist an a$$hole and it will bounce right off for reality is my shield.happy New Year folks