Barack Obama and the seeds for WWIII

Well I’ve been reading a lot of stuff and trying to understand where US foreign policy is going in relation to the new international realities. In doing so I’ve increased the level to which I suspect President Barack Obama of being out of his element. Up to now I’ve felt Obama was surprised but open to seeing the past policies of any number of former Oval occupants were grounded in certain realities. Although realities can change just like sand shifts, there are constants. It is those constants that Obama and those he lead (?) and the ones he follows get turned upside down.

To say Obama is cautious is perhaps both the kindest and yet largest understatement one can make of him. He clearly analyzes things,perhaps over analyzes things. Some find this to be dithering,others a refreshing change from the perceived cowboy yahoo-ness of GW Bush. Love or hate either of these guys I for one do think Obama analyzes & over analyzes. I am unmoved by Obama on the point that he has any real convictions though. I believe he is too flexible in his commitment,but fortunately he is unlike Bill Clinton. I also believe Bush was quick to jump but that he at least had deep convictions.

Where does this leave us?

I believe it leaves us on the path to another World War. A war of global proportions with multiple nations involved and it’ll happen for one or more of the following reasons. I also add my take on Obama for each. Keep in mind I’m not blaming him,just stating an opinion.

Resources

The whole world needs them and when you get to the staple level like water you get a number of areas where they are so limited and the haves and have nots so unfriendly there is friction. This situation is caused by any one nation but doesn’t someone need to be a leader? I believe the dawning of the stronger international community and loss of national sovereignty to be a weak alternative to preventing conflict under this banner.

Obamas place in this? Burdened by domestic issues and war he has nothing to offer.Where he does see and say stuff he defers to the internationals.This weakens the USA.

Clash of Civilizations.

I don’t believe this is the most viable possibility but it gets put out there by others. I personally believe that in the short term the opposing ideologies on this planet and, I see three, will choose to coexist.It is still a possible even if my chosen outlier.The three ideologies I speak of are: Liberalism,Islamism and Statism. Liberalism in the capitalist way with democracy at its core,Islamism not in the extremist sense but still pretty rigid Quranic based kinda Iran Lite and Statism covers the Chinese,Neo-Soviets= Russia and FSU cabal combined with the developing third player of developing nations and city states.Think Brazil, India, Indonesia other Latin America nations for example.

I view this scenario more an issue as the third groups relevance and membership evolves. Very interesting stuff when you think of certain regional arms races,the suppliers,buyers etc.

Obamas place in this? Simple, he has maintained the status quo in places and has scored an incomplete in others. On this point it would be interesting what a second term could do for Obama and America. Of course since I disagree with some of his domestic policies I see him as a net negative on helping America stay vibrant and relevant in the debate. Perhaps his place in history will not be important on this but then one has to discount Bush,Clinton et al and I don’t buy that.

Long time rivals finally go

This is a good one to bet on and I think we look primarily in two places. The Middle East with a focus on the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. Regional players will have a different look both very shortly and undoubtedly over the longer term. Syria,Iran,Bahrain,Egypt etc. all add powder to this potential explosion. How much stronger does Hamas and Hezbollah get if the Shiites take Bahrain? Iran a clear winner in the current Jasmines gets a chance to roll the dice. Will they? Palestinians see Jasmines and the new international action of R2P. What? They’re gonna sit still?

The second place to look is the Indo Pak conflict. Continued potential for Pakistan to destabilize and Indias continued growth and international relevance. I don’t like the chances of that staying “all quiet on the Kashmir Front”.

Obamas place in this? Well as much as any POTUS he has tried to play it both ways. Both ways won’t work much longer and either real or perceived someone is going to be picked over the other. My guess is India. My further speculation is that won’t go over well in Islamabad. Heres the biggie. The next POTUS may very well be the one that has to choose. Sucks to be him.

Tron goes Real

This is an interesting one for me. I think of the worm attack on Irans nuclear program and a number of Chinese backed acts of espionage via the Net. I think about two powerhouses playing the satellite shoot down game and how the world is so dependent on the stuff floating in space. I think of the movie Fail Safe. I think about how world markets are all “e” in nature and think of how old world tactics of blockades and Trojan Horses seem to have eerie 21st century descendants.

What action on an electronic level equals a Tonkin Gulf,a Pearl Harbor or an assassination in Sarajevo? This one scares me the most because of the unknown potentials.

Obamas place in this? I got nothing other than hope that he and the next President and the next and the next stay vigilant on this.

All in all I think Obama as President of the United States of America has both an active and passive role in how the seeds of WWIII get sown. Actively he has indeed weakened America as well as been at the desk while America has weakened. It is not all on him. He has been long on response in a world that unfortunately moves pretty fast. A world where things are not always as concrete as we’d like. This unfortunately allows people to view things that are not necessarily real. Today as I type people undoubtedly believe if they rise up the US and the internationals will respond. This simply isn’t true. In other places people and leaders are assured America is yet further weighed down ans spiraling downwards. This is not good either obviously.

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14 Comments

  1. bvilleyellowdog says:

    “We have always been at war with east Asia.” Neocon military industrial complex orgasm.

  2. Alfie says:

    This post for ill or good has come out somewhat differently then what I originally planned.
    Quite frankly I am near Code Pink rage regards the Libya,WFM,R2P agenda and felt O had set US on an absolutely wrong path. As I pondered all this and plowed through material I altered my course. I started to be more concerned about the potential of a WW regardless of the Oval occupant.
    This post and the Federation Generation one is my catharsis on the matter. I thank people in advance for reading either/both and welcome any comments. No matter how bashing. I’ve put my thought out there and welcome seeing others.
    With that said I’ll likely be away from the computer I access In2thefray with for the rest of the day. Thx

  3. Hucking Fypocrites says:

    “Neocon military industrial complex orgasm.”

    What’s Obama doing to stop that, dog? He seems more than happy to play with those “unique assets” that the MIC has given him.

    But then, he’s more of a chicken-hawkish Neocon than Bush ever was, so I guess you are right.

  4. bvilleyellowdog says:

    Be afraid regressives – very afraid:
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/30/961378/-The-Stuff-of-Republican-Nightmares
    tick tock

  5. Tex Taylor says:

    Wet dreams Dawg, wet dreams. It is you that should be very afraid, your wake up call starting last Nov. 2nd in a historical rout of your beloved philosophy.

    Liberalism has failed, and failed dramatically. More so, with the recent failure of Obama’s pseudo-Keynesian economics, a redaction of FDR’s supposed greatness is now ongoing. Add to the fact, you no longer hold the upper hand in reported news as you and your ilk have since the 30’s, truth is beginning to win the day. And you hold no truth – not your party and not you. The only sure conclusion is that you are losing the battle.

    And I would remind you, that your previous predictive abilities have proven abysmally wrong – starting with the death of Conservatism, as you explained to the T-World message board in 2008. It took about twelve months for your lies and rank propaganda to die a quick death, and since then it has only turned even more unfavorable for you transgressives.

  6. Hucking Fypocrites says:

    Dog still doesn’t understand that Barack Obama is more of a “regressive” than he is anything else.

    Tax breaks for the rich.
    CIA black sites (and now ops in Libya)
    Indefinite detention
    Patriot Act.
    His own personal Surge in Afghanistan
    His own personal war in Libya

    …and the list goes on and on.

    Is that what you voted for, dog?

  7. bvilleyellowdog says:

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/2chambers/2011/03/senate_passes_libya_resolution.html

    How many rethugs voted for this resolution????
    Every single one.
    How many have since criticized Obama? They need to STFU. Those two faced videos are awesome.

  8. Hucking Fypocrites says:

    I actually agree. Now isn’t the time to flip-flop on positions. We get enough of that from our neocon chicken-hawk.

    So now that you have bothered to tell us what a couple of congressmen feel about our involvement in Libya, and what the Senate feels about our involvement in Libya, are you finally going to man the fuck up and tell us what you feel about our involvement in Libya?

    I will also point out that congress passed, and Bill Clinton signed, a similar resolution regarding regime change in Iraq. Here’s the roll call vote, in case you’re interested. It’s not unanimous, but it still passed and was still signed into the law of the land by the POTUS.

    I get the feeling you never told those 2-faced hypocrites they needed to STFU.

  9. Hucking Fypocrites says:

    Dog, in your last comment how come you referenced “Rethugs” instead of “regressives?” Is the rich-loving, constitution-smashing, war-hawk Obama regressing a little too much for your comfort, these days?

  10. Hucking Fypocrites says:

    Dog, how many of those senators that have been critical of Obama have been critical that he has not come to congress with this issue and not that he ordered it?

    Do they need to STFU too? Is their request that the constitutional scholar actually follow the constitution out of line?

  11. Alfie says:

    Huck I think you’ve presented the case quite well. I can see the reelection attack rhetoric written on the walls and it will be laden with the hypocrisy that is the BHO FP show.

  12. Alfie says:

    Morocco joins the Jasmines….still get golf tourney in. Awesome! How’d O not hit that one? lol

  13. bvilleyellowdog says:

    Rethugs / regressives – same.

  14. Alfie says:

    Not saying the hacker(s) is/are actually an agent of a sovereign state but the Epsilon mega email hack is something to think about regards my #4 Tron goes Real

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