Alfies Electoral Playbook I

I was inspired by the thread at Rutherfords to put forth my thoughts on some political scenarios for the 2010 and 2012 election cycles. Please feel free to comment,here goes.

No Credible Third Party

This will remain true for the near future in America and I’m ok with that. In fact if we are to ever have a third-party I want it to be a centrist one or nothing. I don’t see that happening though since I don’t see the Big 2 ever truly playing to the base and nothing but the base.

Regional third-party runs will exist of course. I think more on the Right than the Left. The Rights will be driven by Tea Party inspired challengers and will continue to be unimportant. The Left will see far left and agenda specific candidates (such as SEIU in NC) but they will epically fail. I believe the Rights will tend to help the GOP and the Lefts will help the GOP too.

No Democrat Challenger in ’12,especially not Hillary

Yeah! sorry PUMA’s but kitty has been declawed and put out into the alley. Let’s look at what would have to happen to allow Hill to take a run at the Oval.

  1. She would have to come up with something other than foreign policy to challenge Obama on. I say this since she has had as much if not more to do with the amateur hour FP tour the USA has embarked on. She cannot get a pass on it by blaming things on Barack.
  2. She would have to split the party against a sitting US President. I just don’t see it.
  3. She’d have to infuriate the black block of the Democrat party.
  4. $$$$$$$

I’ve seen it suggested elsewhere ,and can believe it to a degree…2016. I think by then though America will be such a different place and she so irrelevant that it would be equally unlikely then.

Other possibles such a Bayh and Dean are the wild-cards I’d worry about if I was a Dem strategist and they represent the two that have any chance of making me eat crow on this.

Indies Rule

Yeah baby! I think the independents will be a major driving force in the next two cycles. I easily point to MA Senator Scott Brown and state with some pride that the true thing he represents is that Indies matter. This is excellent for America and democracy in general. We are at the precipice of altering the status quo.If a handful of states can join the ranks of players we all win. We must hope ,and I think we can rely on,the end of candidates taking states and districts for granted coming about.

Issues,happenings and the +/-‘s

Economy is right now imo

a + for GOP candidates but only going into 2010.

Union separatism?

If the unions in the country push to get card check,pension bailout and “cadillac” exemptions I think they will hurt the Dems amongst independents.I  think they are definitely going to go ahead with it and thus be a thorn in the ass of the Democrats. “look for the union label…..”

Social Stuff

ie Gay marriage and DADT must stay off the table if the GOP wants to enjoy big gains.They should also lay off abortion as a front line agenda item. the next SCOTUS pick will probably make this an issue again. Stupack and SCOTUS in 2010, just in general in 2012.This will prove unfortunate for a couple of reasons.

Far Left apathy is a blessing the GOP.

I don’t think anyone should look for it in 2012 though. I think it will be present in 2010 in many places and ways. Yahhhoooooo!!!!!

Tea for Two

The Tea Party movement will peak with the 2010 elections. Stubborn entities will hold on but the results of the elections will pretty much stifle the movement. I also predict that the GOP will recreate a Contract with America moment for going into the 2012 run. This will be done to promote a unified and clear platform.

Biggest plus for Dems in 2012?

The GOP doesn’t have a candidate.I think we’ll find one and by that I mean a real one not a disposable token like Dole ’96.

Biggest plus for Dems in 2010?

They can only lose so many seats,there is a limit and they’re lucky for that.I think various GOP battles will provide arrows for future Dem races.

Biggest plus for GOP in 2012?

Energy. The GOP is blessed to have a sitting president who by 2012 will have provided the feeling of a two term president.

Biggest plus for GOP in 2010?

Angst and division. The country is still divided and 2010 will be the year We the People get to serve notice of such. Every indicator the common man cares about going into 2010 boils down to one thing:CHANGE! This time sweeping out incumbents is a rule and I’ll be absolutely shocked if it doesn’t play out that way.

Obama impact 2010.

He will be a boost in a few places otherwise he’s toxic. The middle ground areas are up for grabs regards public perception of his showing up. For instance he put in some flood related face time and fund-raising here in MA for Obama Lite ,Gov Deval Patrick. The thought that there is any real value of that event is lost on the public especially regards the coming gubernatorial election.

He’s a good candidate so I guess he can bring something to the table,I just wonder how many elections he wants to personally dip his toes into.

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6 Comments

  1. LOL says:

    I am going to disagree on the GOP needing to stay away from the issue of gay marriage. California is pretty damn liberal, and shows no love for Republicans (except in our governors), but when the people were asked about gay marriage, it did not pass the mustard.

    Plus, there are Obama’s own comments on the subject.

    That isn’t to say I suggest it being a platform issue for the GOP. But I think they are safe in bringing it up if needed.

  2. Alfie says:

    When it comes to wedge issues I prefer other ones.Let’s compromise. If state level candidates want to run on it and actually make legislation which in turn reins in activist judiciaries so be it. I don’t see it as a good use of political capital though.

  3. Rutherford says:

    I have to agree with Alfie on this one. When you’ve got national security and the economy to run on, gay marriage is little more than a distraction. When times are good, the GOP does well on social us-against-them issues. Times are not good. Gay marriage is the least thing on the minds of the average American right now.

  4. LOL says:

    As I said, I wouldn’t make it a platform issue. I just wouldn’t be afraid of talking about it if it came up. (IE: “That’s above my pay grade.”)

  5. Elric66 says:

    Obama/Bush Nearly Divided

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/obamabush-nearly-divided.html

    How sad for al-Thuggy. Took the media years to beat down Bush’s poll numbers. Same media cant prop up this POS high enough. LOL

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